Gridiron Challenge: Week 6 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Can't say I saw this one coming in the preseason.

We're into our third NFL "bye" week -- at least originally scheduled ones -- and finally we've hit that point where the decision to hold a locked-in-cheap player through his bye becomes a legitimate question for Gridiron Challenge owners.

Thing is, I never thought the first player being asked about wouldn't be a player after all; it'd be a team defense, that of the Tennessee Titans.

Seriously, that is how well the Titans' defense/special teams has performed to date. With 93 GC points through five weeks, the Titans not only lead the position, they lead it by 25, which means they're offering five points per game more than any other team.

I'm among the many who owned Tennessee's defense heading into its Week 6 bye, and had it locked in at a nice, cheap 5.1, 0.9 less than its market value. And it wasn't a tough decision at all for me: I let it go, and found a one-week replacement.

Why? Remember: Never waste a week, even from your defense, the one position that brings legitimate risk with a minus score. Besides, if you look ahead on the Titans' schedule, you'll see the Colts and Packers in Weeks 8 and 9. If you weren't ready to unload them at their bye this week, surely by one of those you might need to set them free.

You'll see below which team I picked in the Titans' stead. There's a sleeper in my "One-week ponies" section, too. Others I'd take a look at: Carolina (at the Buccaneers), Philadelphia (at the 49ers) and Tampa Bay (versus the Panthers), and naturally, the Giants, whom I'd play against practically any opponent.

Now, on to my Week 6 picks:

Bull market: Invest now

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (5.7 price tag): He's back from his one-game suspension and certainly anxious for some game action after a two-week break (the Giants were on a bye in Week 4). Burress will be rested and motivated, and that can't mean anything but bad news for the Cleveland and San Francisco secondaries, who tend to get eaten up by their opponents' No. 1 receivers. Giants offensive players across the board make worthwhile two-week buy-ins, as the matchups play entirely in their favor. As a unit they're performing on par with -- or ahead of -- any team in football.

Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins (6.2): I don't know who that quarterback was who took the field for the Redskins in Week 1, because the Campbell I've seen in four games since has looked nothing like the one I saw in the NFL opener. He looks cool, calm and comfortable in Jim Zorn's West Coast scheme, is managing the offense splendidly and, perhaps most importantly, isn't committing the costly gaffes he did in the past. Campbell and his mates have hung in there nicely battling a tricky part of their schedule, with road contests at Dallas and Philadelphia the past two weeks, and a Week 2 home game against the Saints. Now they get the meaty part of the sked, with the Rams, Browns and Lions due up the next three weeks. It's time for the feast to begin.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans (5.8): Thanks to the NFL's creative schedule shuffling following the wrath of Hurricane Ike, the Texans face quite a GC-friendly next three weeks, with home games against the Dolphins, Lions and Bengals, three teams terrible in the secondary. Detroit (122.1) and Miami (105.1) have each afforded their opponents passer ratings of greater than 100 for the season, and Cincinnati (86.0) should get there once Brett Favre takes care of business in Week 6. Johnson might have had some trouble with ball control -- he had some costly drops in Week 3 -- but a nine-catch, 131-yard, one-touchdown effort last week should put those worries in the past. By the way, he might even do you right all the way into Week 9, when the Texans visit Minnesota.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets (5.3): I'm taking a big, big chance here, because he's 30, and we all know about the "30-year-old running back" curse, and he's averaging a so-so 3.8 yards per carry for the season, including a drop in that number in each week. Nevertheless, I'm taking the leap of faith with Jones, for three reasons: One, his schedule is extraordinary, with the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs as his next three opponents. Two, opposing defenses are probably going to begin keying on Brett Favre and his receivers coming off that six-touchdown game in Week 4. Three, Jones' legs tend to be freshest immediately coming out of the bye; he has rushed for 111-plus yards in his first game off the bye in each of the past three seasons, and 100-plus seven times within his first four games fresh off the bye week during that span. That last fact especially is why I'll gamble on him.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (5.8): If I'm a Campbell fan for the next few weeks, obviously it follows that I'd want his top receiving target, too. By the way, remember when it was Chris Cooley whom Campbell trusted most? No longer, as Moss has outpaced Cooley in targets (44-32), receiving yards (421-288) and touchdowns (3-1), and that includes Week 5, when Moss handed his GC owners a big, fat zero. Those same owners might be the ones worrying about him, but I'm not, not with his upcoming schedule. The Eagles might be deep enough defensively to toss extra men his way, but the Rams, Browns and Lions certainly are not. If they follow suit, the rest of the team would rip them to shreds.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans (6.6): Sometimes it's fun to take a chance on a little more under-the-radar type, maybe a guy whose job security, at least in most people's minds, might seem a little tenuous. That's Schaub, a perfect No. 2 quarterback for a GC owner, and one not nearly as risky as you might think. I know, I know, his backup Sage Rosenfels has shown us he can play at this level, and Schaub did just sit Week 5 with an unexpected illness. But hand it to Gary Kubiak for giving Schaub a vote of confidence; Schaub will start against the Dolphins, and accounting for that matchup, I'd be shocked if he doesn't explode for huge numbers and earn starts against the Lions and Bengals the following two weeks, too. He couldn't ask for a better schedule to silence his critics.

One-week ponies: Week 6

Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings (DET, 5.1 price tag): Brad Childress' decision to bench Tarvaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte certainly seems to have benefited Berrian; he has amassed 267 yards and a score in Frerotte's three starts and been targeted 26 times, or nearly nine per game. Keep in mind, too, that two of those games came against the talented Carolina and Tennessee defenses, while in Week 5 against mediocre New Orleans, Berrian went nuts for 17 fantasy points. By the way, in his past four games against the Lions -- an awful defensive team to say the least -- Berrian has totaled 22 receptions for 276 yards and two scores. He should feast on this division rival.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (OAK, 6.3): Bush isn't much of a runner -- he's averaging 3.6 yards per carry for his career as well as for this season -- but as a pass-catcher, only Brian Westbrook is his rival. Bush has already caught at least five passes in each of his five games, and in four of those has been good for at least six fantasy points as a pass-catcher alone, in other words before adding his running or special-teams numbers. So when I see a matchup against the Raiders -- with their poor defensive front -- next up on his schedule, I can't help but get excited. Oakland has already been routed for better than 100 yards rushing and two scores by Denver, Buffalo and San Diego, and those are three comparably versatile running games to that of New Orleans. Bush, Deuce McAllister and even Pierre Thomas create headaches for their opponents.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens (@IND, 5.5): I'm well aware that McGahee has gotten the rock only four of the 21 times the Ravens have run the football within 10 yards of their opponents' end zone, while Le'Ron McClain has gotten more of the looks. That McClain is shaping up as Baltimore's goal-line back -- and a pretty effective one at that, with four scores in those 10 tries -- does trouble me with McGahee. Still, it's hard to ignore this matchup, against a Colts defense that has afforded its opponents better than 150 yards rushing in each of four games. He's a No. 2 GC back, but one with a strong chance at a decent yardage total, and a better-than-50/50 bet to poke a long run home for a score.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (DET, 6.5): Not that you really need me to tell you "All Day" is a worthwhile start, but I'll stress that he's an exceptional one accounting for the matchup. Sure, the Saints gave him fits this past Monday night, but that's not that bad a defense up front, while the Lions, they're, well … mom always said if you can't say anything nice … Anyway, when these two teams met in Minnesota last December, Peterson ran wild for 116 yards and two scores. Sure, it could happen again.

Washington Redskins defense (4.3): This is a deep, deep sleeper, but sometimes when you need to load up with elite guys at the skill positions, it befits you to dig deep for a team defense facing a promising matchup. Washington's matchup qualifies; this defense hasn't wowed anyone in terms of sheer GC points, but look at the schedule, with the Giants, Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys and Eagles its opponents to date. Taking that into account, isn't it amazing Washington ranks 13th among defenses with 41 points? Suffice to say, this defense looks worlds stronger than it did during its miserable preseason. It has obviously jelled since, and don't forget, the Rams are an awful road team. They have averaged 11.4 points per game on the road since the start of last year, despite facing many more defenses less talented than Washington's.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (@SEA, 6.1): That Giants backup David Carr came on to throw an easy 5-yard score in garbage time of a 44-6 manhandling demonstrates how poorly the Seahawks are performing defensively right now. Through four games they've made Trent Edwards and J.T. O'Sullivan look like solid, stable fantasy choices, and Eli Manning look like an MVP. (Remember back to their preseason expectations to put that into perspective.) So when you consider that Rodgers, to date, is the GC's leading point getter (103) -- digest that fact for a moment, why don't you -- you can't help but get giddy over this matchup. By the way, if you watched him play last week, it was obvious his shoulder "problem" is really no problem at all.

No chance they'll be in my Week 6 lineup

Joseph Addai, Isaac Bruce, Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Earnest Graham, Todd Heap, Torry Holt, New England Patriots defense, J.T. O'Sullivan, Kevin Smith

Tristan's Week 6 lineup

Total points: 519.
Percentage: 83.1. Overall rank: 32,490th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 628th.

Apparently the receiver curse is back; Calvin Johnson, Tony Scheffler and Steve Smith totaled 16 points, and now Scheffler is sidelined for Week 6 with a groin injury. For that reason, I'm going hard after elite wide receivers and tight ends this week. Chris Cooley's 16-point Week 5 earns him another spot in my lineup, while Burress and Johnson from my "Bull Market" section occupy my two wide receiver spots.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBTony RomoCowboys977.27.30.1
QBKurt WarnerCardinals975.56.71.2
RBAdrian PetersonVikings676.56.5--
RBThomas JonesJets335.35.3--
WRAndre JohnsonTexans355.85.8--
WRPlaxico BurressGiants315.75.7--
TEChris CooleyRedskins324.64.6--
KMatt PraterBroncos514.44.50.1
D/STMinnesota Vikings defense/special teams445.05.0--
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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